Editor, Northern Operations
This report examines the present undercurrents that are swirling and which would shape the contest for April’s presidential election. More importantly, the report examines the chances of the main contenders and how the ambition of one stands to affect the aspiration of the other. The report then draws conclusions as to where all these would lead the Nigerian state – call it post election scenario.
Politicians feed on illusion.
And, therefore, they believe anything can happen.
This year’s presidential race is bound to redefine the shape of politics in Nigeria in the coming years and decades.
Politicians across the north/south divide would have to decide whether they would be able to cope with a renewed feeling of cheating, one way or another, by either the north which would feel cheated that it has been robbed of another four year tenure, or the south, specifically the south south zone, which would feel strongly against robbing their son and President of Nigeria, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, if he loses in his attempt to seek election.
There are today seven presidential candidates:
*President Goodluck Jonathan,
Peoples Democratic Party, PDP
*Muhammadu Buhari,
Congress for Progressive Change, CPC
*Nuhu Ribadu,
Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN
*Ibrahim Shekarau,
All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP
*Pat Utomi,
Social Democratic Mega Party, SDMP
*Dele Momodu, Labour Party
*John Dara,
Nigeria Transformation Party, NTP
For the ruling PDP, there is the concern of not allowing either a Muhammadu Buhari of the waxing CPC, or Nuhu Ribadu of the massively mobilizing ACN, create an upset. The reason is because of the talks still on between both parties. Sunday Vanguard has learnt that both parties are working on a possible alliance and not a merger. This is work in progress.
As for Governor Ibrahim Shekarau of the ANPP, he would pose a strong challenge in the north to the CPC which continues to grow in leaps and bounds up there.
Since Jonathan’s choice by PDP came through a seemingly transparent primary, his path to success at the presidential election ought to be smooth. But Atiku Abubakar, the man he defeated is still making some irritating noises about “not being a quitter”.
Jonathan’s handlers are already engendering a broadly consensual atmosphere with a view to bringing back on board those who lost out. With Jonathan, PDP appears set for the contest.
Interestingly, the six geopolitical zones of South south, South East, South East, North Central, North East and North West have been making sensible noises about where they intend to stand, there is yet no very clear pattern other than that the South East and the South West would be mere hunting grounds for the front runners.
As for the North West, it was strongly behind zoning and, therefore, remains the playing ground of Buhari’s CPC; for the North Central it was massively fragmented between supporting and not supporting zoning – signs are that the zone would go PDP. The North East swayed for the anti-zoning movement. CPC, ANPP and PDP would slug it out there with the latter having an upper hand. As for the South south, it is Jonathan all the way.
But there are still challenges ahead for the polity.
It would be how to manage whatever fallouts arise from the presidential contest. With the seeming fanatical support base that the CPC is building for Buhari, managing the post election disputes and disputations would create a major challenge for the authorities. Take, for instance, the almajiris of Northern Nigeria, most of who are not of voting age but form the bulk of supporters at every rally of the CPC.
Yet, all hope is not lost that Nigeria could at least have an election not necessarily devoid of some of the usual hiccups but less rancorous.
Governor Ibrahim Shekarau,
All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP Born in Kurmawa Quarters of Kano City, Kano State, Nigeria on November 5, 1955, but hails from Giginyu, Nassarawa Local Government, Kano State, Nigeria.
Many Emirs were consulted and they agreed to back him. Even Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, before his death, wanted him to decamp to the PDP, with assurances that if he were to want to handover to anybody in the event that he would not be able to seek re-election, it would be a Shekarau. But the steely man in Shekarau refused to dump ANPP, his first love.
The title of Sardauna of Kano, which was conferred on him by the Emir of Kano, Alhaji Ado Bayero, was one of the events slated as a build up item pursuant to his presidential quest. Sunday Vanguard was made to understand that the Emir of Kano had to seek and got the permission of the Sultan of Sokoto, Sa’ad Abubakar, before the conferment of the title Sardauna, a Caliphate heritage, on Shekarau.
In his earlier preparations, wide consultations had been made with Emirs across the northern region and all seemed set for Shekarau’s ascendancy, especially in the face of a floundering Yar’Adua presidency.
In terms of present support base, Shekarau has an uphill task ahead.
First is the fact that his ANPP leaders are not coherent in their support for him. The Borno State governor, for instance, is doing a one-leg-in, one-leg-out palongo dance – Modu Sheriff is a Jonathan sympathizer. His Yobe State counterpart, also an ANPP state, does not appear to be fully in control as the man who actually won the ticket for governorship Senator Albashir’s image still looms large.
Then there is the fact of a polarized north, with three of them emerging Buhari, Ribadu and Shekarau.
No doubt one of the performing state governors, Shekarua’s quest for the presidency would not be hinged on mere performance; the fact of real politick would count.
He is the ANPP candidate.
Muhammadu Buhari, Congress for Progressive Change, CPC
He has not hidden his aspiration to become President since 2002.
In 2011, it would mark the third consecutive time Muhammadu Buhari would be seeking the presidency of Nigeria. He has his own ideas about how Nigeria should be run and he demonstrated this between December 31, 1983 and August 25, 1985, when he was Nigeria’s military leader. A stern disciplinarian, Buhari believes that with the virtue of discipline, a great Nigerian state can be created. He may be right.
However, in the construct of Nigeria’s high wire politics, discipline as a virtue almost always serves as a discount.
Buhari can not claim not to know.
In the 2007 presidential elections as it was in 2003, right under Buhari’s nose, his then colleagues in the All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP, specifically most of the state governors, worked for Olusegun Obasanjo’s Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, against their own party’s candidate who was Buhari. They not only worked for Obasanjo, they also (openly in some instances) worked against Buhari.
But Buhari believes in one thing: His own popularity.
Buhari is seen by many as a good man.
But then there is a paradox: Why has Buhari not always succeeded at the polls, at least twice earlier?
The answer lies in the fact that politics is not about being clean or dirty. It is about mobilizing and aggregating the sum of goodwill and popularity for the singular purpose of appreciating that politics is about consensus building. That is Buhari’s baggage. It is that absence of a will to build consensus that continues to pour cold water on Buhari’s every move to become Nigeria’s president. Although his party, the CPC is in talks with ACN, there are talks of a possible alliance. But between Buhari and Ribadu, somebody must step down. Who would that be?
Once during the discussions for a megaparty, a meeting had been called. Buhari was the chair of the meeting, which also had the likes of Olu Falae, Atiku Abubakar, Ben Obi and Usman Bugaje in attendance. But once Buhari had finished his presentation, he skipped about “three to four items on the agenda and moved to closing remarks; it had to take the intervention of Senator Ben Obi”, Sunday vanguard was told, “who insisted that there was an agenda for the meeting and which had to be followed”.
In fact, a parallel is being drawn between Buhari and Obasanjo: Whereas Obasanjo could be self-conceited and deceptive, Buhari’s sternness and bullish disposition is easily betrayed.
Which is why Buhari decided that he could not suffer the ignominy oozing fort from leaders of the ANPP; he simply chose another platform for his aspiration, CPC; where this would lead Buhari, only Buhari knows. But Nigerians are already beginning to see where it could lead with the massive mobilization of supporters across the entire north for his party.
President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, PDP
He is the incumbent and his name should tell those in opposition to his ambition that with patience comes good luck. His wife’s name is Patience. His emergence as President speaks to a lot of good luck. Some of those pushing for his candidacy have put forward so many arguments to dump the zoning arrangement in PDP and move on. He is already the PDP candidate.
Arguments in favour of Jonathan seeking the presidency include but are not limited to the fact that zoning short circuits the search for a qualitative political engineering in the polity, that it limits the search for quality within any time frame; it disenfranchises prospective competitors from other parts of the federation other than the area where the office has been zoned, it creates a negative feeling of de javu in the zone where power currently resides; that it creates a sense of absoluteness inn the zone or the occupier of the office; and that it forces a candidate from a particular zone on the polity.
For Jonathan, since winning the PDP ticket, he has been building bridges to shore up his support base. More importantly, however, Jonathan’s aspiration has rekindled a new fire in a large segment of the minorities of the north.
In fact, a new movement, Movement for Equality and Change, led by Third Republic Senate President, Ameh Ebute, insists that nobody should gag President Jonathan.
Those rooting for Jonathan insist that “with the presidency in firm control of the PDP and with its preponderant support base in a country of 36 states with PDP controlling 27, winning the prsidentrial election should be easy.
But Jonathan is not deluding himself.
Already some prominent and politically well-connected individuals like Chief Anenih are working ceaselessly for him. Then add Senate President David Mark, and the entire PDP leadership – sans the yet-to-concede-victory Atiku group – winning the election may not pose too much problem but it would be tight.
Jonathan is also not resting on his oars in this great battle.
He is blessed with some political tactician and he wields the power of the state.
Nuhu Ribadu Mallam Nuhu Ribadu has two wonderful assets by self and association. First is his reputation which precedes him.
Second is the fact that he belongs to the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN.
Perhaps, Ribadu remains the only Nigerian presidential contender to date on whom there is yet to be hung a baggage. Not that Ribadu is a saint; but the perception of Ribadu in the estimation of members of the public is of an individual who is clean.
However, cleanness alone does not a presidential winner make in Nigeria.
What Ribadu has going for him is the platform on which he is seeking his presidential mandate.
The ACN has continued to grow in numbers. It is seen as the party to belong to once the PDP has handed you a raw deal. From Imo State to Akwa Ibom to states in the South West where the party is threatening to wipe out the PDP, the the North Central zone and even in some states of the North, the party has continued to welcome new members.
With its working arrangement with the Democratic Peoples Party, DPP, which is very popular in the Zokoto, Zamfara, Kebbi axis, ACN’s presidential pursuit can not just be wished away.
Ribadu, from Adamawa State and who hit the polity like a thunderbolt as the founding Executive Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, went into exile in 2007.
He returned towards the end of last year.
In an interview with Sunday Vanguard when he returned, Ribadu explained that his return to Nigeria was not because he has been offered any job or because he is in search of one. In addition, Ribadu explained that his activities during the build up to the 2007 general elections, a period when the activities of the EFCC was variously described as being political and vindictive, were borne out of genuine service, insisting that he was never used to hound anybody.
The former EFCC boss made it clear that those who forced him into exile actually marked him out as an enemy, but thanked “God Almighty that I am still alive”.
“In fighting back, we were in this country when somebody said he would see to it that the authorities demoted, suspended and sacked you – we heard it and we saw all that happen to you and I know you know the person I’m talking about.
“We are seeing God’s hands every day in the delivery of Justice and I don’t think we should see all that as the end. We will see more and more of Justice being delivered and done”.
On how to change Nigeria again if given the opportunity, Ribadu said: “You see, we thought we could change the attitude of our people in the way we went about doing our job and I’ve said earlier, there was never a time when we refused to follow the law. We took some very difficult decisions and steps that resulted in people misunderstanding what we were doing and you can imagine because these involved the powerful and the rich in the society.
You do not expect them to just sit down and allow you to do things that would make them disadvantaged or allow you deprive them of the resources that they already had in their hands; they would not allow that and all that noise was just about that. They would fight back and in the course of fighting back, they would confuse members of the public and they would give an impression as if what you were doing was not the right thing, or that you were being used, or that what you were doing was not for the common good of the people of this country. That is the truth”.
No comments:
Post a Comment